My issue with lockdowns is that they are solving the wrong problem. Yes, I understand that we need to keep the R number low to help hospitals fight the virus.
But we just wasted half a year doing nothing. Maybe nothing is an overstatement and we did a lot of hoping that there won’t be a second wave, I don’t know. From where I’m sitting it’s nothing.
From where I’m sitting, this is an optimization problem.
- We have X number of people who will catch this thing.
- Those people need the best chance to fight it off, for which they need hospitals, nurses, drugs and what not.
- Let’s get all of those things.
Closing shops, restaurants, schools, offices and what not, and then sending people on furlough is all fine — if we do it for a reason. If we do this to win time, and then waste all of that time? I’d really love to opt out please. Put your lockdown up yours.
Yes, close down an airport — but then build a makeshift hospital there. Yes, send hospitality workers home for half a year — and hire them to support nurses, hospitals or the elderly.
Governments, your job is not only to optimize.
Your job is to optimize for the right thing.